A March into Utter Madness

It is upon us. Before you panic, let me remind you that that is a good thing.

Selection Sunday is over. Now the hard part begins, picking who you think will win the NCAA tournament. Not only that, but also writing down who you think will win all of the little meaningless games in between on a sophisticatedish bracket-type sheet of paper.

Just so you know, it is absolute chaos.

That is why they call this March Madness. Everyone has a chance to win, a chance to upset the apple cart and a slew of brackets.

Please understand that these are not predictions; I do not expect these to come true. These are educated guesses by an uneducated individual. But you know what the funny thing is, I have as much chance of correctly choosing the winning schools as someone who has been studying college basketball for six decades.

How to Fill out an NCAA basketball tournament bracket:

1. Method to the Madness: There are 65 teams playing in 65 games all in all, and that can be a lot to digest. So relax and dive into the bracket one step at a time. Don't jump ahead of yourself. The quicker you come to the realization that this is an impossible task, the quicker you'll stop worrying so much and enjoy yourself. Don't watch too much TV analysis, because then you'll be overexposed to Dick Vitale, and that isn't good for anyone.
   
2. The play-in game: Alabama State plays Morehead State for a chance to be the victim of the #1 overall Louisville Cardinals. Don't get overexcited by realizing that it doesn't really matter.
   
3. No 16 seed has ever beat a number 1 seed. The number 2 seeds have only lost to a 15 seed 4 times in 96 games. Go with statistics and start by advancing Louisville, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, North Carolina, Michigan State, Memphis, Duke, and Oklahoma into the second round.
4. The 8-9 match-up: Since these are the closest two seeds on the board, these are usually some of the best competition and also the most difficult to predict. In fact, the 9 seed has historically won more times than the 8 seed. But did Siena play as tough a schedule as Ohio State? Can Butler contend with LSU? The answer is uncertain. I have BYU moving on because I see their Mormon work ethic carrying them past the slovenly Aggies from Texas A&M.
5. The 5-12 match-up: Despite the separation in the seeds, this has been a hotbed for upstarts and upsets in the past. The higher seeded team has only won 67% of these games. Look for the likes of sharp-shooting Western Kentucky to outgrow their 12 seed and overcome the Fighting Illini opposition. Not only that, but the Badgers of Wisconsin are going to surprise the ACC tournament finalist FSU Seminoles.
   
6. The 7-10 match-up: Another statistically tight category, the 10 seed enters the tournament with a chip on their shoulder because they were unable to earn a single digit seeding. Expect that the traditional basketball programs at Maryland and Minnesota to pull the upsets on the football schools in California and Texas, respectively.
   
7. Upsets: 3 and 4 seeds will usually have the upper hand over their tiny opponents, but nothing is a sure thing. Make sure to have a healthy number of upsets in each division and each round. One or two is plenty, but where and when you put them is key to a successful braket. Temple over Arizona State and West Virginia over Kansas are my early round shockers.
   
8. Sleepers/Cinderella: Sometimes upsets are not just flukes. Sometimes a good team waits until the tournament to get good, despite the fact that they have a low seeding or play in the Sun Belt Conference. George Mason made it to the Final Four all by himself in 2006. I want to remind everyone that last year I did correctly guess Stephen Curry and Davidson into the Elite Eight. If only they had actually played a school named Goliath, they might have made it to the Final Four. This year, I foresee Western Kentucky slicing into the Sweet Sixteen, and then 'hill-toppling' past UNC into the Elite Eight. Anything is possible.
   
9. Bracket Busters: In diametric opposition to the sleeper, the buster is the big team that everyone expected to do well, only for them to choke and falter in the early rounds. For years, that team has been Duke. Only now, every one expects Duke to fail, so they will make it to the Elite Eight. Instead, Memphis without their electric star Derrick Rose, will stumble early to Maryland of all teams and lose some people a ton of money in the office pool.
10. Hunches: Do not underestimate the power of superstition. After all, everyone has an equal chance of guessing all the games right. It is like successfully navigating through an asteroid field. Never tell me the odds. So, when stuck with a tough decision, go with your gut. I have Utah State upending Marquette because of the fight that the State mascot got into during the conference tournament. I've also been giving an unexplained preference to schools beginning with an 'M,' Maryland, Missouri, Minnesota, Michigan are all winning. Of course, Morgan State doesn't get its ship off the ground after being sent home by Oklahoma. There is an 'M' in humiliation.
    
11. Affiliations: We all play favorites. One year, I had a 3 seeded Florida going all the way into the final game, just because they were my favorite team. Turns out, they won the tournament two years straight. Sometimes, playing favorites works. If your team of choice didn't make the cut to the Big Dance, pick schools from your conference. Tennessee and LSU are moving on because they are in the SEC. Everyone should give schools in the Big East and ACC special preference as well. On the other hand, the Big Sky conference is not expected to turn any heads.
    
12. Elite Eight: By this time, all of the flukes and shutters are out of the system. The Mountain Dew has worn off with Syracuse and their out of gas and UCLA has realized that this is not the '70's. Left standing are the 8 best teams in the country at this given point in time. Or at least they think they are. If you've gotten to this point, you've done something. Chances are, you haven't gotten to this point.
13. Final Four: People are judged based upon who they place into their final four. Who they pick seems to say a little bit about their personality. You can choose to be seen as someone who plays it safe, a risk taker, or a football fan. What does Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Oklahoma, and Wake Forest say about my personality?
    
14. Finals: It is an accomplishment to even have selected the right two teams to face each other in the final game. It is an even bigger accomplishment to predict which of those teams will ultimately be crowned as the 2009 basketball national champions. However, that should not stop you from trying. I don't know how to type a drum-roll so I'll just let you know that I think that Pittsburgh will beat Wake Forest 86-79 in the final game. How cool would it be if I got that right?

Let the madness begin...